As 2025 draws to a close, we pause to reflect on a year that has been anything but ordinary. Global markets grew on the back of the AI conviction and Fed rate cuts, even as trade tensions, conflict crises, and lofty valuations kept investors cautious.
Closer to home, the fine wine market weathered its own storm. Bordeaux 2024 en primeur was the worst campaign in history. Prices across the fine wine spectrum softened through the first half of 2025, before stabilising over summer. Then, in September, the first green shoots appeared: Liv-ex indices rose for the first time in nearly three years. We end 2025 with cautious optimism, as it appears that oversupply is easing. Tariff-gate purchase paralysis from the U.S. is fading, secondary market inventory in the UK is trickling out, and China is slowly re-engaging. Investor confidence is returning, and the scales are rebalancing once again towards demand outweighing supply for the best wines. While we don’t expect a Covid-style bubble in 2026, we do expect this trend to stick, and with it, a more measured, thoughtful market.
Our post-factum on the sharp correction since mid-2022 is as follows: wine indices lost roughly 30% after the market’s rapid growth attracted the wrong kind of capital. Investors mistook the surge for a crack at quick gains, and diversified into fine wine without understanding one of its most fundamental dimensions – patience. Most of these participants have since been flushed out – a positive outcome for fine wine’s long-term health. But it’s important to reiterate that fine wine is not, and should never be a playground for short-term speculators. It is an asset that rewards time, discipline, and conviction.
Looking ahead, it’s worth noting that for the first time in over twenty years, fine wine is showing a dislocation from gold. While the two assets have been closely correlated in the past, this divergence is simply a consequence of fine wine being overlooked – perhaps due to its recent rollercoaster movements. A forgotten asset in a market obsessed with speed, liquidity, and modern narrative is – in our eyes – an immense opportunity.
On the back of this, 1275 has experienced its most successful year to date. More importantly, the last three months have reinforced our conviction that the market has reached the bottom of its recent trough. Throughout this year we’ve worked quietly but deliberately, capturing the arbitrages that have appeared through the cracks of a market under pressure. In practical terms, this has meant securing icon wines in great vintages between one and two decades old at pre-pandemic prices – effectively buying back five precious years of ageing time on these treasures. We intend to continue in this vein, diligently and selectively, before the wind returns in full force to fine wine’s sails.
Climate change is the final, unavoidable lens through which any serious outlook for fine wine must now be reviewed. Recent announcements from the likes of Lafleur are stark reminders that viticulture is entering a period of profound and irreversible alteration. Production decisions, volumes, styles, and even the very existence of certain wines as we know them will be affected. This reality reaffirms our long-standing focus on building depth in recent and back vintages for our collectors. Preserving what already exists – at its peak, or on its way there – is no longer just sensible, it is essential.
Beyond numbers, milestones, and market cycles, our purpose remains to build a fully traced, pristine, living memory of the best wines from our civilisation; to protect them through rigorous, purposeful management of every step in the supply chain; to safeguard them in our secure wine vault within Geneva’s Freeport; and ultimately, to deliver to our collectors and future generations the Golden Era of wine, without compromise. We will pursue this mission with even greater conviction in 2026.
Thank you for your continued trust and support. We look forward to raising a glass together next year.
Denis Houlès, Founder & CEO of 1275 SA